Holding the Line: Trump’s Approval Amidst a Divided Nation – Quantus Insights

Accurate polling, advanced forecasting, and strategic economic analysis to navigate elections and public policy 
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Accurate polling, advanced forecasting, and strategic economic analysis to navigate elections and public policy 
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Quantus Insights is a premier provider of polling, election forecasting, economic analysis, and advanced modeling. Our mission is clear: to provide political and economic intelligence that influences decision-making in elections and public policy.
 
We focus on strategic insights, research, and campaign consulting. Quantus Insights delivers on data-driven analysis and strategic intelligence for elections, public policy, and beyond. The integration of dynamic polling aggregation, state-by-state breakdowns, and advanced forecasting models provides users and clients with real-time, actionable insights. Whether it’s polling research, economic analysis, or campaign consulting, Quantus Insights delivers the tools to stay ahead in the rapidly changing political landscape.
Quantitative polling for elections, public policy, and corporate decisions.
Advanced prediction models using polling, voter sentiment, and economic data to project electoral outcomes.
Macro and microeconomic assessments to understand voter behavior.
Data-driven strategies to guide political campaigns and corporate decision-making. 
The Concordia model offers a comprehensive forecast for the 2024 U.S. presidential election by integrating a variety of critical factors, each weighted according to its historical influence on electoral outcomes. This model applies advanced statistical techniques and a composite scoring method to generate predictions grounded in probability. By assessing multiple variables, Concordia provides a holistic view of the election landscape, identifying the most influential drivers of voter behavior and offering a broad forecast that captures both national and state-level dynamics.
The Modus model is centered on voter sentiment, focusing primarily on predicting the National Popular Vote (NPV). It draws from a combination of historical election data, real-time polling, candidate approval and favorability ratings, and key microeconomic indicators. The model is designed to simulate multiple electoral scenarios, allowing for the testing of different campaign strategies and external factors that could shift voter sentiment.


Modus Battleground is an extension of the core Modus model, zeroing in on battleground states where elections are decided. This version incorporates the historical relative bias in key swing states, adjusting for unique state-level factors like local economic conditions, voter turnout trends, and regional polling data. By doing so, it projects the most likely distribution of Electoral College votes, factoring in how small shifts in battlegrounds could determine the overall election outcome. This nuanced approach helps quantify how states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin might swing in 2024, based on both national sentiment and state-specific variables.
The Consensus model is an economic sentiment-based forecast that predicts voter behavior by blending a range of economic indicators. It includes critical metrics such as real disposable personal income, inflation, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), alongside others like nonfarm payrolls and the S&P 500. These indicators are weighted to create a consolidated picture of economic sentiment, which is then mapped to voter preferences. The Consensus model is particularly focused on how economic conditions affect electoral outcomes, offering insights into how voters may react to shifts in the economy as they decide between candidates. By linking voter behavior to economic performance, it provides a crucial angle on how economic trends could sway the election.
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